November 2013 Outlook

The weather forecast in early November is a return to seasonably cool days and pretty cold nights. Steaming breath bugles like the one below are possible in this weather.  As I write this we are at peak fall color so visiting photographers will have plenty of subjects to shoot. 

We are still in the 2013 elk rut slowly heading down the slope to the holidays. There will still be bulging for some time and bull fights are possible until mid-month, though they become less likely as the month progresses. 

I have said this many times. A huge percentage of my best bull elk shots are from now until March. There will be bulls "running" herds until the end of December. 

As the rut winds down, all-cow and all-bull herds are formed.  These herds mix with the herds that are still in the rut pattern, but finally there are only gender based herds. 

"Steam This" -- One of my Favorite Pictures

The all-bull herds are generally organized by the size of the bulls.  There are 3 sizes as a rule, the biggest bulls, the second tier bulls, and the little bulls. There is a little mixing but this breakdown holds. They still spar from time to time and these are good pictures.  Don't dismiss this opportunity.

Medium Sized Bull Herd January 2012

Below is a picture I got of the Boxley Stud on November 13 last year.  One fine bull. I did not get a decent picture of him last year until late season.

The Boxley Stud November 2012 by Moore Creek

We are now entering prime time for elk photography. Some imagine that the best is behind, but the best is ahead. If you like big bulls this is the best time of the year to get the wall hangers.

10/8/13 Elk Herd Location Map

Pretty good elk viewing today.  The big Ponca herd took the day off. There were some stragglers around, but the best viewing was in the south end.

People who arrived early saw Little Tine fairly close to the fence at the 43/21 intersection.  The best viewing was down by the river at the south end where "Hooks" and his small harem were very visible. He was posing in nice light for the many photographers and elk watchers.

There were stragglers elsewhere.  Nutty bull elk behavior is beginning to show. Like 16 year old boys at the dance, it is pretty hard to figure what they might do.  Add a little extra caution when you visit the valley.

Visitors saw 2 bald eagles today down by the south end.  This is pretty early, but I have heard reports that the migration seems to be beginning because of the rough weather up north.  We shall see.

Understanding the Cycles Elk Rut Season

The curve below represents the elk rut as a bell shaped curve basically reflecting the number of cow elk in heat.  The very peak of the curve is roughly in mid-October. This will vary a bit from year to year, but as you can see the best of the 2013 elk rut is just ahead and it will continue through November and even extends into the holidays.  The bull elk of course respond to this cycle.

Arkansas Elk Rut Bell Shaped Curve

Like all things natural, the timing of the breeding is spread out as a hedge against calamity. Some cow elk are bred in September, others as late as December, but in both cases they are uncommon.

The very biggest bulls show up when a lot of cow elk are in heat.  We are there now, and it will increase for a few weeks.  Cow elk return to estrous in 30 day cycles until they are successfully bred. The different sized calves you see in Boxley Valley reflect these cycles, with some born from 3rd estrous cycle.

This 3rd Cycle Calf Was Born in August 2010

9/28/13 Elk Herd Location Map

Elk viewing conditions and locations remain about the same.  Things are dynamic now with herd bulls switching in the 3 main viewing areas.  This morning viewing was very good in the Ponca field.

This morning Pretty Boy lost his harem to a bull bugling from behind the cane line. My bet is that the new bull is Junk Yard Dog, the same bull who has robbed Pretty Boy now for 2 years.  JYD is a beautiful 7x7, check out the post I did on him. Photographers, you will want a good pic of JYD.

Rain is coming and with it some uncertainty about viewing.  The last forecast I saw said it was 80% chance this evening for rain and possibly thunderstorms.  Elk do love rain, they don't like thunderstorms. Depending on which way it goes viewing could be bad or good.

2013 Elk Rut Season Timetable

I have been watching the elk rut a long time in Arkansas. The following bullet points lay out the rough timetable for the remainder of this year:

• Bulls Scrape Velvet -- Yes this is not the rut, but it is the sure sign it is just around the corner. Velvet scraping starts roughly about mid August and continues up to the rut starting rougly in mid September.
  
• Early Rut -- Very late August to about the second week in September. Remember the rut is a bell shaped curve. The first in can be outliers, way out on the lip of the curve. Twinforks is an early rut bull.
  
• Peak Rut -- Biologists object to this term, but there is a time when the rut really heats up, and the prospects for seeing a great bull fight is good. The first bull fights are generally the most violent because they are setting the pecking order.  These fights begin late in the second week in September and extend to about the second week in October.
  
• Arrival of Huge Bulls -- Around October 1.  Just about the time you think you are seeing all the big bulls, the really big bulls arrive. Look at their bodies, as well as their antlers. When two of them square off, it is epic.
  
• Late Rut -- After about mid-October until around the end of December rutting continues, but the intensity gradually tapers off. Elk viewing remains very good, and the big bulls are evident, but fights are less likely. The latest fight I have ever filmed was around November 9. 

If you want to see a bull fight you will need to visit Boxley Valley often. If you plan to stay or camp, the best percentages are from the 3rd week in September through the second week in October.  If you see a bull fight, you will never forget it.